A few outrageous predictions for 2010
The Copenhagen-based online bank’s 10 economic predictions for 2010 form an annual what-if exercise that purports to predict rare but high impact 'black swan' events beyond the realm of normal market expectations.
Previous predictions have included Ron Paul being elected US president and crude oil prices crashing to $25 per barrel … and you know how those babies worked out.
High on its list for 2010 is the fact that the US Social Security Trust Fund will go bust.
This is not so much an outrageous claim as an actuarial and mathematical certainty, says Saxo. Next year will be the first time that outlays and part of the social security payments will have to be funded by high taxes, more borrowing or printing money.
Of greater interest to Canadians perhaps is the bank’s prediction that small cap stocks here will rise by another 50 per cent. Positive GDP figures in 2010 could very well ensure that the S&P/TSX Small Cap index provides a surprise to the upside, Saxo says.
Of course, I thought the whole point of black swan events was that nobody one saw them coming in the first place.
But why quibble?
Do you believe that anything on this list will come to pass?
By Gordon Powers, MSN Money