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February 25, 2022

Maybe the bull market isn't dead after all

A few years ago, veteran market strategist Laszlo Birinyi told the New York Times that we were in the early stages of a classic bull market. Since then, the S&P 500 has returned more than 50%. 

In fact it's up some 124% off the lows and is nearing nearing record highs.

And that's not about to change anytime soon, he says: “The bull market probably has between a year and three years to go. I can’t time it. I can only point out the trend.”

And he's not alone in that view. What the big rally hasn't done is cause stock valuations to hit nose-bleed levels that put the bull market at risk, says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.

"There might be some ups and downs, but we will likely have another leg up in this bull market," says Kleintop. "Bull markets end at higher stock market valuations."

Birinyi says it’s as if people are realizing: “The market isn’t like the New York subway system. There isn’t another train coming right after this one. This is it, this is the last train. You’d better get on board.”

When this exuberance turns irrational and becomes widespread — when fear is gone and people with no skill in day-trading gleefully engage in it — it’s time to run, but that time hasn’t come yet, he says. 

There is a 55% chance that the S&P 500 will reach 1,600 this year, he estimates, and it’s likely to keep rising after that.

Are you on the side of the bulls when it comes to the markets?

By Gordon Powers, MSN Money



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Gordon PowersGordon Powers

A long-time fund company executive, Gordon Powers now heads up the Affinity Group, a financial services consulting firm. Gordon was a personal finance columnist for the Globe & Mail for many years, has taught retirement planning...

Jason BucklandJason Buckland

The modern-day MC Hammer of money, Jason can often be seen spending cash that isn’t his with the efficiency of a Wilt Chamberlain first date. After cutting his teeth as a reporter for the Toronto Sun, he joined the MSN Money team with...