The end of oil?
By Gordon Powers, Sympatico / MSN Finance
The study of "peak oil" - the point at which half the total oil known to have existed has gone up in smoke, beyond which supplies steadily dwindle - was once the sport of squinty-eyed academics. It wasn’t taken seriously by business or consumers, mainly because oil has always been cheap and plentiful.
Well, we know where that got us. Now, thanks to China’s second great leap, global warming and recent record oil prices, the debate has shifted from if to when. If consumption grows at even a modest pace low, then, according to U.S. Department of Energy estimates, we may reach the turning point as early as 2035.
For an interesting overview of what reduced supplies might mean, have a look at Anita McGahan’s thoughtful piece in Rotman, the Rotman School of Management’s quarterly magazine. McGahan, a visiting professor at Harvard, highlights how the transition away from oil carries fundamental political, economic and social implications that travel far beyond rising prices at the pump.
What does all this mean for Canada’s energy patch? Right now it’s suffering through a trifecta of problems – lagging energy demand, tight credit conditions, and increasing costs – but most analysts agree that this can’t continue. Take a longer-term view and the case for higher multiples on Canadian energy stocks starts to look pretty attractive.
Posted by: N.Rosevear | Jan 17, 2022 3:27:53 PM
Would be nice to see the end of oil for something a lot cheaper and let them go under...LOL
Posted by: mark pequegnat | Jan 17, 2022 3:55:35 PM
yea! invest assuiming they do not go bust before you invest. got ta love capitalizim- {crime}
Posted by: Edith Wenzel | Jan 17, 2022 4:48:50 PM
N Rosevear must be from Ontario
Posted by: J Hamacher | Jan 17, 2022 5:51:58 PM
That's right, Ms. Wenzel, because every single discussion about alternatives to fossil fuels has to be the blossom of some socialist plot hatched by damned Ontarians to undermine Alberta's oil industry. Or are you writing from Saskatchewan, perhaps?
Never mind Canada's sometimes silly internal politics, fossil fuel is a sunset industry, or at least it ought to be treated as such. Surely even the oil-rich provinces of this country could benefit from new sources of energy such as wind, solar, geothermal, and so on. The only ones who really don't want those projects to succeed are oil company executives. I'm sure oil patch employees could find work in new energy, so even they aren't going to suffer in the mid- to long-term.
Posted by: R.Kenny | Jan 17, 2022 6:07:49 PM
I dont care , as long as you can tune it , trick and make it go fast ( and sound cool ) i dont care what the hell is powering my car >.< ( just my lil bit )
Posted by: Dr. Steed | Jan 17, 2022 6:29:39 PM
Don't worry, the big oil companies won't go under, at least the smart ones. I know because I work for one. Oil companies are energy companies. Oil will not end over night. As reserves gradually dwindle, do you honestly believe that they will dwindle as well? They will slowly evolve to take control of whatever energy source is dominant. I know, because that is what I and others in my field are paid (quite exorbitantly) to do.
Posted by: Bobtow | Jan 17, 2022 6:42:11 PM
There is a chicken little in ever crowd. No one Knows the extent of the oil reserves under ground. How can they factor what is under the arctic ice if there hasn't even been a survey? There a lots of alarmists. Thats how they make their money. A good scare could put up the price of oil. Maybe thats the object of that article.
Posted by: Sir G | Jan 17, 2022 6:52:38 PM
read TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT........ BY MATTHEW SIMMONS then you will have an isight into OIL
Posted by: mark pequegnat | Jan 17, 2022 7:10:24 PM
I believe it is not about rightt or left. It is about regulating these two evils. and pliase keep religion out of this.
Posted by: gowman | Jan 17, 2022 7:27:36 PM
I believe that the underlying message here is not about OIL, or coming lack thereof, but of innovation with respect to changing technologies. Reading some of the (above) comments, I have to ask; "Did you even read the article?" Sometimes reading is more than just scanning words with your eyes. It also involves processing and disseminating the words your rolling eyes just ran over.
I too work in the Oil Industry. It truely is an archaic idea. However, at present, it is the cheapest form of energy and thus has allowed us to excel as we have. Innovative ideas take energy. We could have 200 people on the end of goon spoons diggin' ditches from Edmonton to Chicago, but instead we've come up with an innovative solution(s) through cheap energy. By capitalizing on these innovations while energy has been cheap, we've been able to free up 190 people to come up with other innovative ideas, while the other 10 man the backhoes we created.
Think people. That is what the author is prescribing; innovative thought processes before we spend most of our time (or our grandchildren's time) defending our little post Cheap OIL socio-economic communities from maruading bandits.
Posted by: S. Johnson | Jan 17, 2022 7:51:14 PM
I believe that the sooner we run out of oil, the sooner we will use the alternatives which are already there waiting for us. As has been for many decades. And they, the now so called oil companies, will become energy companies and we will pay for the new energy dearly. The world will be set up for them and not us. Example: They will provide us with wind or solar energy but we will not be able to set one of these up in our back yards. So either way we will pay and they will reap the dough. It has been this way and will always be this way. Municipalities will by-law against this, solar for instance, as it may not look appealing in the back yards. That is what they will say but really they would be paid for hansomly by the companies to make it this way. Just like it is now.
Posted by: Mike M | Jan 17, 2022 9:35:34 PM
Oil is the last thing the world needs to worry about.I have a funny feeling that Man kind is not going to be around to see the last drop of oil. With the world population growing faster than can be handled and the amount of poverty, hatred of one another and evil that keeps expanding across borders our only foot print that is going to left in the world is our own destruction. The sad part to it all is that when the end comes, and it will, the whole world is going to be asking "How could this happen?" The answer will be so simple. We, as Humans, let it happen. We, as in every person in the world, do not have the capacity to change the course we are on. I hope there is a God, but I don't think there is, because we are all going to see him and it's probably going to be sooner than later. So is oil important. NO
Posted by: mark pequegnat | Jan 17, 2022 10:46:25 PM
The summery of artical was about investing in canadian energy. pesonaly I Think the banks will recover first
Posted by: Rod M. | Jan 17, 2022 10:51:51 PM
The way I see it? So long as it doesn't run out in my lifetime....who gives a shit!
Posted by: Dan | Jan 17, 2022 11:05:02 PM
To all the morons who think oil is going away anytime soon. Please explain where 80 million barrels a day worth of energy is going to come from. If you say sun and wind power you're just oblivious. The hope for humanity comes from fuel cells and fusion power.
Posted by: genevieve | Jan 17, 2022 11:52:17 PM
oil companies have been pushing their greed.........the workers and the people in the corporate offices will be in for a rude awaking......with global warming ...the worlds deep recession.........our human race and the earth we live on will not accept the greediness taken from mother nature for the old mighty dollar..........mother natures breaks are on real fast! i dont see any oil worker or ceo of an oil company driving a small economical vehicle on the job site or to and from work!
Posted by: Mike | Jan 18, 2022 7:34:58 PM
OPEC (Should be OPFC for Oil Price Fixing Cartel) is finally getting a long overdue comeuppance.
Posted by: jimmay | Jan 20, 2022 4:15:46 PM
Peak oil is bunk. Peak oil makes a huge (and incorrect) assumption that all oil on earth has been discovered and spoken for. The Jack2 well in the Gulf of Mexico singlehandedly DOUBLED US proven reserves, in the process wiping out Hubbert's Peak and bebunking Peak Oil Thoery. One well. With many, many more to come. The exploration boom in New England is yielding huge finds right on the doorstep of America's biggest oil markets. Cuba also has some gargantuan fields offshore that are 40+ years from market. While there is still plenty in Alberta, BC and Sask are just starting to unlock their potential as well. The thawing and totally unexplored Arctic Ocean has oil and natural gas boiling right out of the water. These are just a few examples of massive finds that will power us along with reasonably priced oil for the next couple centuries, leaving Peak Oil hookum in the dustbin of alarmist thought where it belongs. The latest run-up in oil never had a anything to do with demand of oil itself. It was a speculative bubble brought on by excess liquidity in global markets. The liquidity has been removed and viola - oil returns to a "normal" $30/bbl. Maaagic.
Posted by: François Villeneuve | Jan 22, 2022 2:10:43 PM
As far as I understand, Peak Oil is not the moment when we will reach the "middle" of oil reserves, as Gordon says, but rather when world oil demand will be significantly higher than world oil production, causing massive price increases. Classical economics would say, "the invisible hand of the market will lead consumers to cheaper energy sources," except that our world energy infrastructure cannot change overnight, especially the transportation infrastructure, which depends so much on oil, and cannot easily be replaced by electricity or other fossil fuels. This lack of easy replacement will keep the demand for a long time high while the production will decline, leading to high prices.