Will there soon be any renters left in the market?
Just under one third of current Canadian renters are planning to buy a home within the next two years, according to recent study from TMG The Mortgage Group Canada. That translates into a potential increase of 12% in overall demand for home ownership, TMG predicts.
What's been holding them back so far? Affordability and interest rates, mostly. But 54% indicated they would buy even sooner if they believed interest rates were to rise 2% or more in the next 12 months.
But that's not the whole story. “The same percentage of renters indicated the ability to repay with as much flexibility as possible was as important as obtaining the lowest possible mortgage rate," notes Lawrence Smith, Professor Emeritus in Economics at the University of Toronto.
"It means Canadians are really thinking about paying off mortgages as opposed to what we’ve seen with sub-prime mortgages in the US which was all about rate, cash-flow and just getting approved.”
With home ownership rates already hovering over 70%, are there really that many renters who are actually going to enter the market, particularly in the major urban centres?
Sounds like wishful thinking to me. After all, there's a big difference between planning on doing something and actually pulling the trigger -- just ask any smoker.
What about you? If you're renting now, are you poised to jump into the market? What's your trigger point?
By Gordon Powers, MSN Money
Posted by: Josh | Feb 21, 2022 8:49:32 AM
We bought our house in 2009, and took a 20 year mortgage. Our thinking is this: work hard and long hours to pay off the mortgage while we are still young and strong, that way we do not have crushing debt when we approach retirement.
We also bought with ZERO expectations of house appreciation. We purchased a home that we can live in for 30 years, and decided not to use mortgage debt to speculate in the housing market.
Posted by: fredderfong | Feb 21, 2022 10:00:43 AM
I wonder if owning is going to be worth it in a few years with taxes being what they are since the taxpayer pays for everything from the PUPPY PRODUCING by your town workers to the hochey rinks for rich sports fans and OWNERS EDMONTON being a prime example if the ^%&*** consel members would drive around in the morning they see all their trucks parked in resturant parking lots
Posted by: fredderfong | Feb 21, 2022 10:04:45 AM
its to bad our news media dosn't tell the truth
Posted by: sassychanny | Feb 21, 2022 11:14:27 AM
My husband and I make great money, but becuase of some bad choices when we were teenagers, we have poor credit. No one will give us a mortgage, so we are stuck paying rent. Unfortunate is we are paying $1,500 rent, when we could be using that money towards a home. It sadens us..
Posted by: Gare-Bear | Feb 21, 2022 11:51:17 AM
Can anyone tell me who the men in this picture are? http://www.ebay.com/itm/320850765042?ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1555.l2649
It is EBay item # 320850765042
Posted by: Deb | Feb 21, 2022 2:50:01 PM
My husband and I are not interested in purchasing a home at this time and intend on continuing to rent. We have both been through a divorce and have teenage children still at home with us. It would be pointless to take on that kind of a debt load at this time in our life (not just a mortgage but also the taxes). We are looking forward to instead of paying a mortgage/taxes spending the money on childrens education and travel. Both of those options seem much more prudent at this time and more enjoyable.
Posted by: Ms.Mae | Feb 21, 2022 3:19:55 PM
I just put in an offer this weekend (Feb 20) was accepted should have the key's in my hand by the end of March 2012.Soooooo exciting, but scary as a first time homeowner (OMG, can I call myself that yet??)
Houses in the Calgary market are flying off the listings at record speed (one house i put an offer in for was listed for LESS than TWO Days and was sold; the house Im buying was only listed for 6 days) and for the first time are being listed BELOW their market value, totaly unheard of in the last 5 years, which means almost instant equity in the house.
Im a single mom with no other income then my salery (no child support) but Im blessed with great credit which worked wonders for my intrest rate. My biggest set back was a down payment (I'm currently blessed with good friends), but with intrest rates bound to go up and housing prices to follow shortly, if your a renter looking to buy, my advise is to do it NOW!!! this won't last forever.
Posted by: Financial Guru | Feb 21, 2022 4:21:41 PM
Purchasing a property in Canada right now is one of the worst financial decisions anyone could possibly make. Properties are at record high prices in major cities and financial press around the world are beginning to write about the imminent housing bubble crash in Canada. The question no longer seems to be 'will the bubble pop', but rather how far will property values fall. The only media seemingly not writing about it, is the Canadian media. But, of course, given they own their houses in Canada, their view is obviously a bias.
First time home buyers locking into low rates today will be decimated, when their rates are reset at the end of their first term. Those borrowing at 3% today can expect a more normal 6% in 5 years. This scenario will take the payments on a $300K 30 yr mortgage from $1265/month up to $1800/month. How many Canadians can afford that extra $500+ per month? Those who can't will find their homes in foreclosure, resulting in a gush of repossessed properties hitting the market and thus driving down property values due to excessive supply on the market. This will result in a double wammy on the housing markets, as with rates at a more normalized rate (5-7%) in 5 year, less people will be looking to purchase homes. More supply plus less demand will result in a nosedive in property values. Add in, when the prices dive, even less people are going to want to buy. Why buy today, when you can buy the same property for less in 3 months?
Posted by: ron | Feb 21, 2022 4:27:01 PM
No thanks! wishful thinking on the housing market, a correction is coming and the sooner the better. Spin it anyway you want, why be married to a lender, the interest on a mortgage will make you cringe! Another scam by you no who?
Posted by: Kevin | Feb 21, 2022 7:12:36 PM
None of these people must live in the Vancouver! We just sold our house in Greater Vancouver and put the money in the bank. There's no way we're going to buy another house until the bubble bursts. We don't have any kids left at home and we're renting a beautiful 4000 sq ft house on 1 acre for our horses. It's only $2500/month. It would be a lot more if we bought the place. As far as we're concerned we are mortgage free and can go anywhere we want without having to pay real estate fees. Plus we pay no property taxes. We're loving it!
Posted by: hav perspective | Feb 21, 2022 8:43:44 PM
Too often i hear "we bought because we did not want to waste money renting". That's a bit of blind faith. The fact is, you have to consider your property taxes, mortgage interest, property insurance, extra life insurance you need to cover the debt, and household repairs in same manner as renting - money wasted.
Never mind that if you become house poor and the reduced cash flow takes away current and future life experiences (travel, time with kids, saving for retirement, savings for kids education...)
Don't do it because someone else did (either way), get information, crunch the numbers and ask people who have done both. But what ever you do, don't assume you are going to see some great appreciation in value in your home. Check this out...house has a hard time beating inflation.
Posted by: coletta | Feb 21, 2022 9:05:23 PM
No body really knows what is really going to happen! If europe will keep on going they way it is now, if the americans continue in a depression,interest rate will be staying low. The question we should be asking i think when is the right time to buy! You can ask one million "experts" and you will get one million different answers. The best is to follw your gut feeling and do not overextend youslf! Everybody who have been here for years(not the last 10:you are spoiled)knows real estate goes up then down then up and down again if you buy short term there is a 50-50 chance to make or loose long term probably you will make it. The rental market i think will be strog either way prices go up you cannot afford the prices, price go down and interest rates will up you cannot afford the payment. It sound like a broken record but....then where do you think all those people who as you say will loose their investment certainly the bank wont rent them back the house they foreclosed! they rent.
I heard the same story by the self proclaimed "experts" in the late 70- 80-90-2000-2010 some of these people they could not invest 10cents....they look into a crystal ball trying to emulate Merlin!
Honestly people follow your instinct, do not over buy and buy long term...wewil be OK!
Posted by: john | Feb 21, 2022 10:06:41 PM
Do the basic math: if you pay a mere $1000/mth in rent that's $12000 per year going down the toilet. 10 years: $120,000 that you will never get back. Guess what? The place that you are renting is owned by someone else who has a mortgage inwhich you are paying off for him, and he is also probably making a good profit on top of it too.
Posted by: Financial Guru | Feb 22, 2022 12:07:16 AM
Yes, let's talk about 'money you will never get back'...
$1000/month will buy you around a $225,000 property on a 30 yr mortgage at 3.5%.
Interest paid to the bank over the first 10 years? About $70,000.
Property tax over 10 years? Depending on where you live, probably around $20,000.
Home insurance? Add in another $10,000.
Mortgage insurance? Another $5,000 or so, depending on your age.
Repairs? Variable depending on the age of the house, but $10,000 over 10 years is not unreasonable for a home 20+ years old.
Maintenance fees if you buy a condo or into a strata, count on another $24,000 over 10 years.
And, the real killer, if you get transferred, or worse, lose your job... cost to sell your house? Around $10,000 - $15,000 in realtor and closing fees. Then there is also the fees your bank will charge for paying out your mortgage early, that may run you another $10,000 or more.
Total cost (i.e. 'money you will never get back') over 10 years to own at $1000/month? Around $115,000. If in a strata, around $140,000. If you suddenly have to sell, even more...
And, the real kicker is, in most cities you can rent A LOT nicer place for X/month than what X/month will allow you to 'own' with a mortgage.
I have owned, but currently rent. The writing is on the wall for Canadian real estate and anybody with Economics 101 under their belt can read it clearly.
Posted by: True | Feb 22, 2022 1:24:55 PM
FINANCIAL GURU, EXCELLENT JOB, VERY REALISTIC !!
Posted by: Western Guy | Feb 22, 2022 5:08:08 PM
Ok Financial Guru. Apply your thoughts to this.
Now 5 years ago I purchased a condo to rent it out. I paid 150K. The downpayment I got from a lne of credit that costs about 60 a month in interest. My mortgage costs $611 and the property taxes are $100. Condo fees are $185 and utilities about 50. Thats a total "cash" cost of about $1000 a month however each month my mortgage drops by $250 right now so my true expense is about $750. I have had the same renter for 5 years at $1200 a month. The kicker is the property is now worth 220K. Easiest money ever.
Now financial guru will tell you that interest rates are going to jump and wreak my little party above. What he doesn't understand is that for interest to rise in that manner we would need large scale inflation. If this inflation hit my rental prices would immediately increase while I would likely have several years before my mortgage reset so not only would I not lose money I would make an extra bundle. You can bet if interest rates pick up 3-4% I will be increasing my rental rates as my renters wont be able to afford their own place as easily and my competitors on variable rates will have to lift their rates. Its actually a great win for me.
Some of the above comments from renters show how distorted their view is. As a landlord if my property taxes increase I pass that cost on by increasing the rent charged. So just because property tax isn't itemized on your rent doesn't mean you aren't paying it. Also with all of my properties I only rent at a profit (why would I have a rental property to lose money) so no renting is never better in the long-run and is only occasionally better in the short-term.
Lastly investing in property is forced savings. Buying an "equivalent" property to what you rent should cost about the same as renting (I'll agree Vancouver will be upside down on this but in most places I have looked in Canada this would apply). However a portion of that cost grinds the mortgage. This means you should compare the cost of a mortgage paid over 20 years to renting for the next 60 years (figuring an age 25 start). Also don't jump in with how bad taxes are as above I showed how you pay them regardless of if you rent or own.
Posted by: john | Feb 22, 2022 7:16:58 PM
The fact is, when I an 50, my house will be paid off. A renter will pay rent until they cease to exist. Even if the housing market crashes, I can still live in my house and keep on paying my mortgage down. I have the pride in ownership, I can renovate as I see fit, and don't have to ask anyone what color I can paint my walls. As for losing your job...you still have to live somewhere, whether the money is going towards your landlord or the bank is irrelevant.
Posted by: Cris | Feb 22, 2022 9:23:07 PM
You can bark all the way you want and we can tell the article and those supporting it is written by someone who is either a renter, incapable of owning a house or has houses or condos up for rent and is desperate to find losers to pay off his or her mortgage. Wake up. Ownership is what says it is. I own my house and it is paid off. Nobody will ever tell me to get out of it. I am handy, I fix everything, I decorated it the way I liked it. When I decide, I can sell and move to Europe and find another property at the same or a cheaper price and enjoy my life. My kids never had to move every year or so and the landlords can go to hell. The renters will have to live in subsidized houses when they lose their jobs. At the taxpayers' expense. I met a few of them and seniors. If I lose my job, I have savings and my house I own and not the bank.
Invest in yourself and your kids. They will have a house after you die. The renters will leave nothing behind. It matters. Unless they like paying for someone else's lifestyle and being broke all the time. Nobody has to live in a big, expensive city. Make the right choices. There are plenty of smaller cities, where the houses are still affordable and they can be paid off in 5 or nine years, not 30 like the banks tell you to do, so they can get huge profits off your hard work. And no, there will be no realtors fee for us either, as we know how to sell our house. We don't need real estate agents to tell us how.
So, your theories can go down the drain, because you cannot fool everyone.