Are we headed for another Depression?
By Gordon Powers, Sympatico / MSN Finance
The Dow and S&P 500 tumbled to levels not seen in nearly 12 years, raising more fears that we’re sliding right off the deep end.
All this talk of an impending Great Depression is, well, a bit depressing. And, according to Yale professor Robert Shiller, it could easily end up as a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It’s not that there aren’t similarities, he says. The rupture of both stock and real estate markets, closely followed by the collapse of several financial institutions, does seem to have a lot in common with the 1930s. And, so far at least, the taxpayer dollars pledged by the US government to mop up bad mortgage debt and shaky balance sheets don’t seem to be having the desired effect.
Still, while the current recession could easily turn out to be the most relentless of the post-war period, it has a long way to go before it rivals the Depression in either length or severity, says Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel at Seeking Alpha. So far, the downturn is at worst competing with the 1981-82 decline, he believes. And the Canadian experience is quite similar.
I think I prefer Mark Perry’s take on the whole mess though. Perry, a prof at the University of Minnesota, feels there’s little possibility that the economy will still be in recession by the middle of this year. His rationale? The New York Fed's model which uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates to calculate the probability of a recession, looking 12 months out.
Here’s hoping that model, which has accurately predicted the last seven recessions back to 1960, is on the money once again.
Posted by: Joe Rogers | Feb 24, 2022 8:48:42 AM
I think the word ' depression' brings about images of the 1930's bread lines and dust bowls. If this is a depression, you will probably see something different, like the creation of a world wide socialist network designed to keep the rich rich, and the middle class non-existent.
Posted by: Neil Bailey | Feb 24, 2022 9:03:02 AM
It is obvious that our economy is in a nose dive and any optomism that things will turn around soon is only a guesstimate. It all started with the plane attacks on the world trade centre towers 9/11.
Nothing is positive now eccept the value of that precious metal - gold - the universal currencey. Once jobs are created in large numbers the dive will level off. Who ever thought banks would go bust. In Canada we will have to watch for the dreaded lineups at financial institutions and if that happens the next great depression may have started as the canadian economy is supposed to be the envy of other countries. Havent you experienced that your financial advisor always informs you to stay in the market ! Banks do not want a rush of investors withdrawing from the market creating even less capital in the business, economic engine. If one has a job hold onto it because it will be looking for ways to shed you. In the last depression people committed suicide and sadly that has also occurred this time. Maybe we had better resort more to prayer and be thankfull for what we have. Should I say hang in there or would that be just an all to familiar whatever.
Posted by: jojo | Feb 24, 2022 9:20:57 AM
a depression is coming, people in denial will suffer the most..get ready.
Posted by: Keith Dangerfield | Feb 24, 2022 9:25:54 AM
I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN AN UNABASHED AMERICAN SUPPORTER. I HAVE ALWAYS BELIEVED IN THE US 'FREE MARKET' AS THE BEST MODEL TO FOLLOW. HISTORY HAS PROVEN THAT 'COMMUNIST' 'FACIEST' OR 'SOCIALIST' MODELS NEVER WORK OVER THE LONG RUN.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS TIME, THE AMERICAN 'COWBY CAPITALISM' HAS CREATED A SITUATION THAT UNDENIABLY HAS DRAGGED ALL THE 'GOOD ECONIMIES', EUROPE, GB, CANADA, AUATRALIA DOWN THE ROAD TO RUIN WITH THEM. A FEW THOUSAND GREEDY FOOLS ON WALL STREET HAVE CREATED THE WORST BANKING CRISIS SINE THE '30'S. WHAT WILL BE THE PUNISHMENT, PROBABLY LITTLE TO THE INDIVIDUALS, BUT THE AMERICAN 'EMPIRE', FOR LACK OF A BETTER WORD, IS ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE. MANY COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN AT THE EPOCHE OVER THE CENTURIES AND SOME STUPID RULER OR GOVERNMENT BROUGHT THEM DOWN.....DID I SAY GEORGE W. BUSH!!
IT MAY BE TOO SOON TO TELL, BUT, THE FORCES OF CHINA (AND ALL THE ASIAN COUNTRIES) ARE SITTING WAITING FOR THE U.S. (AND THE WEST) TO SELF DISTRUCT.
SHAME ON WALL STREET....SHAME ON BAY STREET, FOR BEING SUCH 'LEMINGS', AND TAKING MOST OF OUR LIFE'S WORK WITH THEM!!!
Posted by: Lynn Stratton | Feb 24, 2022 9:31:16 AM
Are we headed for another Great Depression? Only if consumers stop buying and start hoarding. Canadian and US economies are two thirds fuelled by consumers. Support your local businesses then they can, in turn contribute more money in taxes, and buy products that the company that you work for makes. If your company is earning money then you get to keep your job because they can afford to pay you. I personally feel that the economy will improve in the coming year provided that consumers take advantage of the lowered prices for many goods and buy them. Doom and Gloom is a self-fulfilling prophesy, but so is Optimism. I choose optimism and I'm betting that most other people will too.
Posted by: Colin Hughes | Feb 24, 2022 9:44:30 AM
Maybe it's time that news agencies stopped talking so much about doom and gloom and started reporting some of the feel good stories. The more negative things you print, the more people become scared. Maybe it's just time to turn off the tv, radio and print news, you have nothing worthwhile to say anyway!!
Posted by: Mike | Feb 24, 2022 9:49:56 AM
Depression? We are already in a depression. Too much money spent on other country's. It's time we use that money and look after our own. Have you ever noticed that food is starting to be tasteless? thats because companies are already cutting back on the ingredients used. Yes they say everything is going to be ok, but have you ever really sat down as a Canadian and thought about it? We need to stop living in denial and start learning that yes we are in major hardship. Everyday you see something in the news about job cuts, losses, higher crime rates. It's only a matter of time....
Posted by: bigdog | Feb 24, 2022 9:57:34 AM
We are in a society that enjoys excess. You have to look like this or your won't be attractive, you have to own this or you won't be part of a certain group. If you don't consume, the economy will fall apart and life as we know it will cease to exist.
Maybe it is time that the balance of power shifted from the rich. Maybe we do need to see equalty in life for all, rather than the rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Clearly this has led to us as a society leaving the needy behind.
Bring on the depression. I am middle class and am tired of seeing the poor suffer and the rich triumph. The people with the most to lose here are the rich, feeding off the consumption of society. Don't hoard, still spend but spend wisely. On the mom and pop hardware store, the corner confectionary. Most of all, find time to give back to the needy.
Watch the Zeitgeist movie series, there are some eye opening facts and a model for society that in my eyes works.
Posted by: oxford | Feb 24, 2022 9:58:33 AM
I sure hope so i want the world to drop from 6 billion people to about 2 :)
Posted by: David Rymes | Feb 24, 2022 9:59:49 AM
This is just a way for Steven Harper and Tony Clement to clobber workers with demands for wage cuts. The workers are blameless , but they insist while they keep all there LOL hard earned cash !
Posted by: aunty medici | Feb 24, 2022 10:24:12 AM
GENERAL PUBLIC HEALTH WARNING
A highly contagious disease of pandemic proportions may be threatening to destroy the economic world in the current environment.The economic
equivalent of AIDS in business bodies has been given the name "Aquired Oliver Twist Syndrome" and the prognosis can be descibed as "companies not
satisfied with the bail-out plan and asking for more". The desease does not discriminate and has been known to affect not only giant conglomerates but also
smaller companies and one Ontario Government Ministry (an isolated case maybe). Initially containment was attempted placing the afflicted industry in
quarantine however this measure appeared to be the usual "too little too late". The temporary treatment of " a free lunch" (a relatively unheard of and
unpracticed panacea in north america) has proved to be an ineffective therapy plan. The virility of the, yet to be identified, pathogen is such that while
discussing the topic, this commentary appears to be showing signs of contracting the virus by coming to the conclusion that further funding into research for
a cure to the malais may be required. Currently the only antidote available is:-
1. volunteerism by,
2. prudency from, and
3. better payroll management of top excecutives.
However research is required into making the pill more palatable as well as reducing the major sideeffects (withdrawl symptoms and post traumatic stress)
associated with this treatment regimen.
The Minister of Health
Dr. Artful Dodger
P.S. A cautionary note.
In order to avoid widespread panic readers of this notice are recommended to imbibe this information together with the homeopathic cocktail of :-
1 pinch salt, a dash of lemon and 1tsb of honey.
Posted by: Bob | Feb 24, 2022 10:27:18 AM
Among all the gloom and doom stories out there, we have financiers, business editorialists, and general optimists telling us it's just another recessive cycle like all the others we've recovered from, so don't sell off, and hang in there. Sorry folks, I think it's the real thing-depression. With all the fiat billions printed and going into the economy, we're going to find out what inflation is all about. There is a lot of misery coming, and the central banks of the world will take advantage of that to create their new socialist world order, which will be something like hi-tech feudalism. No more middle class, just kings and serfs. This has been the plan of central banks for the past 100 years.Destabilize, then pick up the pieces. To anyone wanting to know more, please visit realityzone.com
Posted by: KristyLee Fehr | Feb 24, 2022 10:30:13 AM
I am one of those who dont like to watch the news and listen to the radio I feel the world needs better stop giving to the rich and stealing from the poor I am sick of watching people get sucked in to help others around the world and help our own people Come on now and then theres Grocery stores they just keep on ripping us off at the checkouts Veggie and Fruit prices wow the basics like Oranges and Apples there getting pricy as well...The list could go on and on.We need to ban together people enoughj of being scared of the bigger people out there.
Posted by: Pete, Burlington | Feb 24, 2022 10:36:26 AM
Posted by: David Rymes | Feb 24, 2022 9:59:49 AM
This is just a way for Steven Harper and Tony Clement to clobber workers with demands for wage cuts. The workers are blameless , but they insist while they keep all there LOL hard earned cash !
You have got to be kidding????? You seriously think that the Canadian Government has magically created a global crisis so that it can beat up on workers? Firstly, Canada does not have the trade power to do this, and government doesn't set wages, the market does.
I assume from your posting that you are either an NDP'er or a CAW member and possibly both. If so, the workers you refer to in the CAW are victims of their own success. By negotiating contracts that were greedier each time, their employers are now some of the most uncompetitive businesses on the planet. Couple this with the fact that through mis management, these companies did not anticipate the shift in consumer desires and you are left with businesses that need to go bankrupt and restructure. No amount of government money can or will save them in their current form, so the politicians just need to keep out of the way and allow the markets to do what they do.
This reccession (not depression) will probably be deep and short given that it is the media that has talked us into this with sensationalist journalism. Once things even out and we all get off the protectionist bandwagon, the world will start moving again and consumers will realize that the sky is not falling after all, it was just a case of CNN needing to fill screens with something 24 hours a day and the Iraq war had become boring and was not generating enough advertising revenue.
Posted by: Jim Rowland | Feb 24, 2022 10:42:29 AM
We are in a recession and have been for some time. In this period of time, when you loose your job you are definitely in a recession and when your neighbor or friend looses his or her job it is in deed a depression.
For Governments to loan or give money to bank and companies that are still being managed by the same CEO'S is just ridiculous. These individuals are the ones who got us into the predicament in the first place what makes the Government thing that these idiots will get us out of it.
Save your cash, cash is king.
Posted by: GOOD TIMES | Feb 24, 2022 10:45:42 AM
Think this is bad its like cancer no cure folks the dirty thirty,s were better than what,s coming.It took two wars in the past WW 1 + WW 2 .THe greed of the banks + Wall st can,t cure what is coming you might laugh at me now but it looking us right in the eye ARMAGEDDON .They are not about too nuke themself.
Posted by: Barb | Feb 24, 2022 10:45:43 AM
I certainly agree with Colin Hughes that it is time to ignore the doom and gloom that we are assaulted with every time we pick up a newspaper, turn on the tv, etc. Since early fall'08 I have been telling everyone I come in contact to just live your life as you have been and the situation will correct itself. We, the people are creating this monster aided by the media. Perhaps if the media would concentrate on good news for 48 hours we would start to see a change in the current mind-set. I would like to dare them to try it!!!!!!!!
Posted by: E. BELLA | Feb 24, 2022 10:47:23 AM
I"M DEFENATLY NOT THE SHARPEST TOOL IN THE SHED , BUT I CANNOT BELIEVE THAT WE IN NORTH AMERICA DO NOT HAVE BUILT IN SYSTEMS TO PROTECT US FROM THESE SITUATIONS AND WARN US , I GUESS WE JUST CAN NOT PROTECT OURSELFS FROM GREED . THEY SHOULD BE PUT IN JAIL .
Posted by: Derek | Feb 24, 2022 11:30:04 AM
No, we're not. So long as people stop listening to irresponsible journalists who claim a recession is coming, a depression is coming, prepare for the worst. This need to put fear into the consumer to stop them from spending money is ridiculously stupid. Our economy will fail if we stop buying from each other. If we keep buying from each other money is spread around, everyone has more of it and the economy recovers. If we horde everything, spend nothing, money is not spread and we all go broke as our dollar goes into freefall.
Ignore anyone who says to stockpile and save for the coming depression, it will be a self fulfilling prophecy.
Posted by: oldtimer | Feb 24, 2022 11:41:54 AM
Anyone who doesn't realize we're ALREADY in the opening phase of a worldwide depression, is dreaming in technicolour! Take off the rose coloured glasses folks and face facts! There's little you can do about it, other than to reduce your debt as much as possible, and hold on for an interesting ride.