Bears continue to line up behind BlackBerry's release
Talk about a long wait. After numerous delays, Research In Motion is finally set to show the world its next-generation BlackBerry 10 operating system and its first new BlackBerry in almost two years.
A hit would inject new life into RIM, while a tepid response could sound the death knell for a Canadian icon that's been shunted aside by the likes of Apple and Samsung.
Investors have been betting on the former, evidenced by the fact that the company's stock price has more than doubled since last fall, though it's still nearly 90% below its 2008 peak of $147.
Scotiabank's Gus Papageorgiou thinks it can go higher, providing about a third of current subscribers upgrade and the company can get 4 million new users overseas, especially in countries where the BlackBerry has remained popular.
Ovum analyst Jan Dawson doesn't see that happening, however.
"RIM continues to face the twin demons of consumer-driven buying power and a chronic inability to appeal to mature market consumers," Dawson told CNET. "There is nothing in what we've seen so far of BB10 that suggests it will conquer the second of these demons, and the first is utterly out of RIM's control."
That means it's time to go short, maintains analyst Tim Lordanov. Even if the stock enjoys a brief pop later this week, he believes it will trade in the single digits in about 6 months' time.
A lack of innovation means that what we're watching is nothing short of the RIM's slow death, warns the Motley Fool's Keshav Rajendran: "I truly believe that it will all come crashing down once the actual product is released."
Are you a buyer or a seller when it comes to RIM? Or are simply watching from the sidelines?
By Gordon Powers, MSN Money